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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."