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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.